[bisq-network/bisq] Running the numbers on Bisq DAO revenues (#5171)
Chris Beams
notifications at github.com
Mon Feb 8 14:41:10 CET 2021
I just took a few minutes to run some rough numbers on BTC trading fees based on our victim repayments so far. The exercise evolved into a more general attempt to calculate total monthly revenues. This is all really rough, and BSQ trading fee revenues are missing entirely, but perhaps this could be the start tracking these numbers more rigorously in the future. Please follow along if you're interested, and please speak up if you'd like to help formalize the accounting here (this could become its own dedicated role under the DAO).
This is from the security incident victim repayment report I posted 5 days ago (2021-02-03) at https://github.com/bisq-network/projects/issues/31#issuecomment-772328330:
And this is the same report, run today (2021-02-08):
- Payments started on 2020-07-16
- Days between 2020-07-16 and 2021-02-08 (today): 207
- BTC paid out so far: 5.24512415
- USD paid out so far: 102863.50
- average BTC paid out per day: 5.24512415 / 207: 0.025338764
- average USD paid out per day: 102863.50 / 207: 496.9251208
- BTC paid out in 5 days between 2021-02-03 and 2021-02-08: 5.24512415 - 5.14720217 = 0.09792198
- USD paid out in 5 days between 2021-02-03 and 2021-02-08: 102863 - 99139 = 3724
- 5 day moving average BTC paid out per day: 0.09792198 / 5 = 0.019584396
- 5 day moving average USD paid out per day: 3724 / 5 = 744.8
- USD remaining to be paid out: 235830.75 - 102863.50 = 132967.25
- time left to pay remaining USD at total average rate of 496 USD/day: 132967.25 / 496 = ~268 days, ~8mo, ~Oct 2021
- time left to pay remaining USD at current 5-day moving average rate of 745 USD/day: 132967.25 / 745 = ~179 days, ~6mo, ~Aug 2021
- even sooner than Aug if the average daily USD payout rate continues to increase over the next months as it has over the last. perhaps ~June–July.
- 496 USD / day = 14,880 USD / month
- 745 USD / day = 22,350 USD / month
Summary: Once victim repayments are complete, probably sometime between June and October, we'll have somewhere in the range of **14–22K USD** worth of BTC liquidity come back online every month for the burning man to use in buying up BSQ. That's another couple full-time dev salaries!
---
Ok, so that's how much of BTC trade fee revenues are tied up in victim repayments. Now, let's look at the last few months' worth of the burning man's BSQ purchases. I'm doing this as a way of calculating the _rest_ of our BTC trade fee revenues.
These numbers are from the BM's most recent trade history csv posted at https://github.com/bisq-network/roles/issues/80#issuecomment-767497176, covering all BSQ purchases made between 2020-11-08 through 2021-01-24.
I've dumped these numbers into a google sheet at at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E91nPKhkencv119n79ea2r4gEHQ4Qt4m23Y0En-FX9I/edit?usp=sharing.
>From that sheet, here's a quick chart showing how much BTC the burning man spent during each (Sunday 3p CET) trading window during that date range:
Also from that sheet:
|||
|-------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|
| number of days between 2020-11-08 and 2021-01-24 | 77 |
| months between 2020-11-08 and 2021-01-24 | 2.6 |
| total BTC revenue between 2020-11-08 and 2021-01-24 | 7.12470000 |
| average daily BTC trade fee revenue | 0.09252857 |
| average monthly BTC trade fee revenue | 2.77585714 |
| average monthly BTC trade fee revenue in USD terms (@38k USD/BTC) | $105,483 |
So (and this number is really rough, probably too high), there is **105K USD** worth of BTC already being used to buy up BSQ every month.
---
If we add these numbers up:
BTC revenue freed up after victim repayments are complete: 14-22K USD
BTC revenue already being spent per month on BSQ: ~105K USD
That puts us at around **120K USD** worth of BTC per month available for BSQ purchases once victim repayments are complete later this year.
---
The only major piece of revenue information not calculated here is our current monthly BSQ revenues in USD terms. If someone could add that into the mix (however roughly), it would be appreciated.
---
I threw the above together in 45 minutes or so. So don't trust any of it as particularly well-thought out or accurate. Thoughts and feedback are most welcome.
If anyone wants to take on the kind of [comptroller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comptroller) role the DAO needs, please know that you'll need to be highly independent and self-motivated. Take a look at @pazza83's recent Payment Method Maintainer cycle reports (like [this one](https://github.com/bisq-network/roles/issues/38#issuecomment-770152346)) to get a sense of what it looks like to really take ownership of a role. If you're up for this kind of responsibility and you love running the numbers, please speak up!
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